Senator Clinton, President Clinton, Senator Clintons mother and Chelsea mount the podium. She waves and yells "Thank you" a few times, "Thank you so much, thank you all". She keeps thanking while waiting for the crowd to quiet down.

Well this isn't exactly the party I planned but I sure like the company. I want to start today by saying how grateful I am to all of you...list of thank yous (who scrimped and saved to donate money, who emailed and contributed online, etc) To the moms and dads who lifted their little boys and little girls on their shoulders and whispered in their ears "see, you can be anything you want to be." Anecdotes about people who sacrificed to donate and volunteered support, women in their 80s and 90s born before women could vote.

My commitment to you and to the progress we seek is unyielding. You have humbled me with your commitment to our country...Women and men, young and old, rich, poor and middle-class, gay and straight, you have stood with me and I will continue to stand strong with you. The dreams we shared are worth fighting for. Anecdote about woman who works three jobs but has no health care, the Iraqi war vet, the feeling invisible shtick.

You'll always find me on the front lines of democracy fighting for you (crowd goes wild.) The way to continue our fight now, to accomplish our goals, is to take our energy...and help elect Barak Obama the next president of the United States (some booing but mostly wild cheers.) Today as I suspend my campaign I congratulate him...and throw my full support behind him. And I ask all of you to join me in working as hard for Barak Obama as you have for me (some boos but mostly cheers.) List of Barak Obama plaudits...Now when I started this race I intended to win back the White House and put our country back on the path to peace and progress and that's exactly what we're going to do with Barak Obama.

Now I understand that this has been a tough fight, but the democratic party is a family...we may have started on separate journeys but now our paths have merged...because so much is at stake...list of platform items (economy, prosperity, universal health care) it is a fight I will continue until every American is insured...women's rights to gay rights...promoting unionization, we all want to restore America's standing in the world and end the war in Iraq...

You know I've been involved in politics and public life in one way or another for four decades...and during those forty years our country has voted ten times for president...democrats have only won three of those elections and the man who has won two of those times is with us today...We made tremendous progress under a democratic president...think about how much more progress we could have made if we had a democratic president those forty years...(and these past seven years)...we cannot let this moment slip away. Some will say we can't do it, it's too hard, we're just not up to the task.

So today I am standing for Senator Obama and saying "Yes We Can!" ...that's why we need your help to elect Barak Obama President. On the day we live in an America where (platform items are a reality) we'll live in a stronger America. That's why we have to elect Barak Obama.

(Again, platform items...) That's why we have to elect Barak Obama our president.

When we first started people everywhere asked the same question: "Could a woman really serve as commander-in-chief?" Well I think we answered that one. And, can an African-American really be president, and I think Barak Obama has answered that one...

Now, on a personal note, when I was asked what it was like to be a woman running for president I always answered I was proud to be a woman but I was running because I thought I would be the best president...I ran as a daughter who benefitted from opportunities my mother never dreamed of, as a mother..., we must make sure that women and men alike must understand the struggles of their mothers and their grandmothers...equal pay and equal respect. Let us resolve and work towards achieving: There are no acceptable limits, there are no acceptable prejudices in the twenty-first century. You can be so proud that from now on it will be UN-remarkable for a woman to (win state primaries, to be a president of the united states) and THAT is truly remarkable my friends.

To those who are disappointed that we couldn't go all the way, especially the young people...when you stumble get right back up and never listen to anyone who says you can't or shouldn't go on. As we gather here today in this historic, magnificent building...(right now the fiftieth woman is orbiting the earth) if we can launch fifty women into space we can certainly launch a woman into the white house...

List of various struggles (suffragists at Seneca Falls, civil rights workers who defeated Jim Crow.) Because of them Barak Obama and I could launch a campaign...because of them an African-American or woman can yes become president of the united states...you helped pave the way to that day...every moment wasted looking back keeps us from moving forward. Life is too short, time is too precious, and the stakes are too high. We have to work together for what still can be...I hope and pray all of you will join me in that effort (to elect Barak Obama.) To my supporters (in congress etc) thank you...labor unions...to my friends in every stage of life...to my family especially, Bill, Chelsea and my mother...and to my extraordinary staff and volunteers thank you and thanks to your families as well. Now being human we are imperfect, that's why we need each other, to catch each other when we falter...our lives, our freedoms, and our happiness are best protected and best advanced when we work together...we will make history together...we will stand united for the values we hold dear...there is nothing more American than...looking out at you today I have never felt so glad. The challenges I have faced in this campaign are nothing compared to what millions of Americans face every day...I'm going to keep working (for various platform items)...

This now our time, to do all that we can, to make sure in this election, to add another democratic president to that small list of the last forty years...thank you all and god bless you and god bless America (crowd cheers, speech ends.)

Senator Obama speaks in St Paul, Minnesota (highlights.)

Note: The TV networks are beginning to call Obama the "Presumptive Nominee".

Thank you Minnesota...Thank you...Thank you so much (cheering crowd.)

What a wonderful reception...thank you St Paul, thank you Minnesota, thank you Michelle Obama (and names kids)...thank you to my brothers and sisters...thank you to my staff...thank you to my volunteers...thank you to our campaign manager (David Croft?) who has built the best political organization in the country...thank you to my grandmother who is sitting right now in Hawaii because she can't travel, who made me the man I am today...tonight is for her.

Tonight, Minnesota, after 54 hard-fought contests, our primary season has finally come to an end (crowd cheers.) 16 months have passed since we first stood together on the steps of the old step capital in Springfield, Illinois...because you decided that change must come to Washington...because you chose to listen not to your doubts or your fears but to your hopes and your highest aspirations...we mark the end of one journey and the beginning of another...because of you I can say that I will be the democratic nominee for the president of the United States of America (crowd goes wild.)

I want to thank...I want to thank...all those in Montana and South Dakota who stood up for change today...I want to thank every American who stood with us on the good days and the bad. I also want to thank the men and women who stood with me as fellow candidates for president...I have not just competed with them as rivals, I have learned from them as friends, as public servants...they are leaders of this party...and this is particularly true of the candidate who has travelled further than anyone else. Senator Clinton has made history in this campaign...she has made history not just because she is a woman who has done what no woman has done before...but because she is a leader who inspires. I congratulate her on her victory in South Dakota, and I congratulate on the race that she has run.

I can tell you what gets Hillary Clinton up in the morning is...an unyielding desire to improve the lives of Americans...when we win that fight (for health care) she will be central to that victory. When we transform our energy policy and lift our children out of poverty it will be because she fought for those things...I am a better candidate for having run against Hillary Rodham Clinton.

There are those who say this primary has left our party weaker...there are independents who discovered that this isn't just about a change in Washington, but about a need to change Washington...at the end of the day we aren't the reason you came out...you didn't do that because of me, or Senator Clinton, or anyone else...you did that because...we can't keep doing what we've been doing. For all those who dream of this tonight...let us begin to chart a new course for America (crowd goes wild.)

In just a few short months the republican party will arrive in St Paul with a very different agenda...to nominate John McCain, a man who has served this country heroically, I respect his many accomplishments even if he chooses to deny mine...my differences with him are not personal, they are with the policies he has proposed in this campaign...though he has been independent in the past, independence has not been the theme of his campaign...(links McCain to Bush)...(McCain) asks everything of our soldiers in Iraq, and nothing of Iraqi politicians...a war which isn't making America any safer...there are many words to describe McCain's policies, but change is not one of them...change does not begin with a war which should have never been authorized, and should have never been waged...what's not an option is leaving our troops in that country for another 100 years when our military is being stretched...We must be as careful getting out of Iraq as we were careless getting in. It's time for Iraqis to take responsibility for their country's future. It's time to refocus our efforts on Al Qaeda...climate change...terrorism, nuclear weapons...that's what change is. Not just meeting their fire power, but the power of our diplomacy...where the president of the United States isn't afraid to tell a petty dictator what our policies are.

Middle class tax break to those who need it...investing in our crumbling infrastructure...renewing our commitment to science and innovation...fiscal responsibility like when Bill Clinton was president.

John McCain is talking about making a trip to Iraq...but maybe if he went to the towns and cities in America and saw people struggling he'd understand...(health care reform...that's the change we need Minnesota...crowd cheers.) Maybe if John McCain went to Pennsylvania and met the man who lost his job and can't afford the gas to go around looking for a job...we can't afford oil bought from dictators. And maybe if John McCain spent some time in the schools in South Carolina, or St Paul, or where he spoke tonight in New Orleans...That's why I'm running for president of the United States (crowd breaks out into a "Yes We Can!" chant.)

Now, the other side will come here in September and offer a very different set of policies and positions and that is a good thing, it is a debate I look forward to...but what you don't deserve is another election which is governed by fear, and innuendo, what you won't hear from this side is...using religion as a wedge, and patriotism as a bludgeon...we may call ourselves democrats, or republicans, but we are Americans first, we are always Americans first.

Despite what the good Senator from Arizona may have seen tonight...list of various political accomplishments...beyond all the point-scoring in Washington...Americans are a decent people, united by common hopes...(historical references)...so it has been for every generation that has faced down the greatest challenges and most improbable odds to give their children a better world...America this is our moment, this is our turn, this is our time to turn a page on the past...to offer a new direction for this country that we love...the journey will be difficult, the road will be long. I face this challenge with profound humility...but I also face it with limitless faith in the American people...I am absolutely certain that we will look back and say this was the moment we began to provide health care, slow the rise of the oceans, heal the planet, this was the moment, this was the time, when we came together to remake this nation so it may always reflect our highest ideals...Thank you Minnesota, thank you America, God Bless You.

(highlights)

Sixteen months ago we started a journey...list of states etc...to right here in the great state of New York. We saw millions of Americans registering to vote for the first time...Mothers and fathers lifting their little girls and boys onto their shoulders and saying "See, you can be anything you want to be" (crowd cheers.) I am just enormously grateful...because you asked yourself a simple question: Who would be the strongest candidate, and who would be the strongest president...who will be ready to take back the White House. People in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico had a chance to let your choice be known...18 million of you voted...more votes than any primary vote in American history. Even when the pundits and the naysayers (boos) said this was over you kept voting.

You have voted because you wanted to take back the White House and because of you we won, together, the swing states necessary to get to 270 electoral votes. (Crowd chants "YES SHE CAN!") In all states you voted because you wanted a leader who can stand up for the values of the democratic party...list of platform items...I often felt that each of your votes was a prayer for your nation...to chart a new course...I am so proud we stayed the course together (crowd goes wild.)

Because we stood our ground every citizen made their voice known, 35 million voted in this primary. We have brought so many people into the democratic party...I am committed to uniting our party...to take back the White House.

So many people felt invisible, like your president didn't even see you....I have met too many people without health care, just a diagnosis away from financial ruin...

None of you is invisible to me, you never have been. I see you, I see how hard-working you are...I will keep working for you every single day...I see the promise of America every day.

I know a lot of people are asking "what does Hillary want?" I want to end the war in Iraq, I want to turn this economy around, every child to live up to their god-given potential...every person...to no longer remain invisible (crowd goes wild.) I have an old-fashioned notion, one which has been the basis of my life's work. That public service is about helping people...and that's what I want for every single person...it's wrong that people pay 50% more for health care than any other wealthy nation...I've been working on this issue not for the past 16 months but for the past 16 years...I want an economy that works for all families...(jobs) That's why I souned the alarm on the mortgage crisis over a year ago. I want to restore American's leadership in the world again.

These are the issues that brought me into this race. They have been, and they will continue to be the lifeblood of my work. Your spirit has inspired me every day...you reached out to help me...to grab my arm, look me in the eye to tell me not to quit (crowd cheers and chants.) List of donators (Iraq vet, kid who sold his bike, lady who waited to give me a rosary.) You brought me back in Ohio, and on Super-Tuesday...list of states she won.

I will carry your stories and your dreams with me every day of my life.

The question is where do we go from here? ...I will be making no decisions tonight (crowd goes wild.) But this has always been your campaign. So to the 18 million who voted from me I want to hear you...I hope you will go to my web site at hillaryclinton.com. I will be consulting with (...) to determine the best way to go forward.

And I want to conclude tonight saying thank you, thank you for welcoming me into your hearts and your homes...I am humbled...thanks to the staff and volunteers, I thank your families and your loved ones. And I especially want to thank the leadership of my campaign, Terry McCauliffe who worked so hard...and especially my family, Bill and Chelsea, ...and my mother who turns 89 tomorrow. And finally I want to thank all of the people who had the courage to share all of their stories with me. Anecdote from "just yesterday", a woman was standing right up against the barrier...she grabbed my hand and said what are you going to do about health care? She works three jobs, she suffers from seizures, she can't afford health care...whatever path I travel next I promise I wlll keep faith....

Tonight we stand just a few miles from the statue of liberty and where the twin towers fell...a constant reminder that we are brilliant, we are courageous, no barrier we can't overcome, no dream we can't realize, if we just start acting like Americans again...Thank you! And God Bless America!

Maybe the Obama Oval Office can still feel indie even after the first incident forces him to choose between upsetting Palestinians or upsetting Israel;organizing trade with China and protesting Tibet; saving the economy or offering middle-class taxpayers a break. Like Iron Man — a movie with a big indie heart and a giant budget and record-breaking box office.

So what would John McCain be? How about "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull"? You know the hero is too old for these antics, definitely an 80's hold-over, but you're curious what the maverick will do anyhow.

And Hillary Clinton? Definitely "The Transformers", something you thought was way cool when you were younger, back again trying to milk that nostalgia. But somehow seeing this transformer transform doesn't feel quite right when it's all big Hollywood, even if you know that's what transformers do, they transform! Well, maybe now she can transform into a VP candidate, we'll just have to wait and see.

Onwards to tonight's South Dakota and Montana democratic primary results, and any upcoming Hillary, Obama, and McCain comments.

There are about 100 delegates in play today, specifically 51 tied to Kentucky's primary plus 9 superdelegates, and Oregon has 52 tied to today's primary plus 13 superdelegates.

Expectations are that Clinton will win Kentucky by a large margin and Obama should win Oregon by a few points.

The current count gives Obama 1,613 pledged delegates plus 305 superdelegates for a total of 1,918, and Clinton 1,442 pledged plus 277 superdelegates totalling 1,719.

The new number being used, to win the nomination, is 2,026, so Obama is (before today's primaries) short by 108 and Clinton 307. It's unlikely either candidate will reach that 2,026 number today or by the end of the primaries which have now ticked down to Puerto Rico (6/1, 55 pledged, 8 super), Montana (6/3, 16 pledged, 9 super), and South Dakota (6/3, 15 pledged, 8 super) on the democratic side.

So after tonight there are only 86 delegates plus 25 superdelegates left in primary states. There are a few more superdelegates out there such as the 2 at-large, Edwards' 19 delegates most of which have already committed and are in the above candidates' numbers.

It's likely Obama and Clinton will roughly split today's primaries with probably a few more to Clinton, about 50 each plus some split of the 22 superdelegates, let's call it 61 each for argument's sake. Add in half each of the remaining (though Clinton is expected to do very well in Puerto Rico) and we have another 111 or 55 each, so 105 each if we split them evenly.

This means Obama can in theory come within three delegate votes of clinching the nomination but that's not what's going to happen because Clinton will get somewhat more of the remaining 111 delegates putting Obama just out of reach, perhaps 15 or 20 delegates short, of claiming the crown. Yes, that close.

At this point we suspect it's very likely Obama will bridge that gap and win the nomination. It seems too easy for Obama to dig up 20 delegates given the open, uncommitted nature of superdelegates unless Hillary surprisingly sweeps these few remaining primaries putting it further than a few delegates, or even somehow grabs some superdelegates thought to be Obama's.

19:30 Both CNN and NBC have projected Hillary Clinton the winner in Kentucky. She's leading Obama almost 60/40.

20:15 Hillary comes to the podium with Bill Clinton in Kentucky to give victory speech. "Thank you Kentucky!", "Where every man and woman has a fair chance", makes a statement about Ted Kennedy, talks about projects she's worked on with senator Kennedy, "five extraordinary decades devoted to America", "we wish him well and send our thoughts and prayers to him", "it's not just Kentucky bluegrass which sounds like music to my ears", "some said that your votes didn't count", "we're winning the popular vote and I'm more determined than ever that every vote is cast and every ballot counted", "though we've been outspent massively your support has helped us get our message out", "go to hillaryclinton.com and together we'll make history, and together we will make history and I can't do it without you", (crowd interrupts chanting "Hillary! Hillary!"), "more people have voted for me than anyone who has ever run for the democratic nomination, that's more than 17 million votes", "for too long too many Americans have felt invisible in their own country, well, you're not invisible to me, I've been fighting for you" (crowd cheers), "every single American deserves quality health care, a shot at the American dream", college, secure retirement, etc, "if we only had a president ready, willing, and able to lead" (crowd interrupts with "Yes she (we?) can"), end the war in Iraq, restore our moral leadership in the world, "we believe America is worth fighting for", "never giving up, and never giving in", "not because I want to demonstrate my toughness...but because I believe the democrats have to take back the white house", "that's why I'm still running and that's why you're still voting", "and I'm going on now to campaign in Montana, South Dakota, and Puerto Rico, and I'm going to stand up for the voters in Florida and Michigan", "I'm going to keep making our case whoever SHE may be!" (crowd goes wild), "It's especially sweet because Kentucky has a knack for picking presidents", "this state voted twice for a president named Clinton", "neither Obama or I have won the 2,210 delegates necessary to secure the nomination", "neither senator Obama nor I will reach that number when the voting ends on June 3rd", who is ready (to lead us out of the war on Iraq etc), I want to thank Bill and Chelsea, various Kentucky campaign people, "grateful to the Kentucky veterans for Hillary", to Terry McCauliffe, "I have one more request to my supporters tonight...to everyone who has put up signs etc...keep working, keep fighting for everything you believe is right...people ask me how I keep going, well it is you who keeps me going...women who were born before women could vote, 89 year old (???name???), Andrea Steagall who's drove across Kentucky to tell me her and her husband in Iraq support me, some 11 year old kid who sold his bike to support her campaign, I finally had a chance to meet him in Prestonburg, the $422 you raised help carry the day in Kentucky","That's why I'm in this race", "the state motto of Kentucky is ``United we stand, divided we fall''", "we will come together as a party united by common goals...when we do there will be no stopping us...Thank You And God Bless You And God Bless America!" (ok that wasn't quite a transcript but it's the high points.)

20:38 With almost 85% of the vote in it's safe to say that Hillary Clinton has won Kentucky by a landslide, 65% to 30%, 35 percentage points, over 200,000 more votes than Obama.

22:13 Obama addresses supporters in Des Moines, Iowa. "It is good to be back in Iowa!", thanks campaign workers, "I just want to take a point of personal privilege and say I sure have a nice looking wife and kids!", speaks about senator Edward Kennedy, "so many of us here have benefitted in some way because of the battles he waged", "let Ted Kennedy know that we are thinking of him, that we are praying for him...", "15 months ago in the depths of winter it was in this great state that we took the first steps...", "by the fall the pundits in Washington had all but counted us out, but the people of Iowa had a different idea" (crowd goes wild), "will this country go down the same road which has failed us for so long, or will we choose a new path...", lists goals, an America where a family doesn't have to declare bankruptcy because a child got sick, where they don't lose their home because of some deceptive lender, "a nation which is a beacon of all that is good about America", "you're democrats who are tired of being divided, but also republicans who no longer identify with the party which runs washington", (you're farmers, factory workers, veterans), "you stood for change, and because you did a few thousand stood up, and then a few million stood up, and tonight Iowa in the fullness of spring...we have returned to Iowa with a majority of delegates", "the road here has been long, there have been some bumps along the way, I've made some mistakes", "in her 35 years of public service senator Hillary Clinton has never given up in her fight for the American people", notes Kentucky win, "she has changed an America in which your daughters and my daughters have come of age", "the hardest and most important part of our journey lies ahead", comments on John McCain, that the republican party has been a contest to see which candidate can out-Bush the other and John McCain has won that contest, lists McCain policies, Iraq war, tax cuts, lobbyists are now running John McCain's campaign, "I will leave it up to senator McCain to explain (his policies) but the one thing they don't represent is change", lists change items, a tax code which will reward businesses which create jobs here instead of shipping them overseas, health insurance, energy policy that doesn't involve buddying up to the Saudi royal family and then begging them for oil, that will create millions of new jobs, change is parents who turn off the TV and the video game and read to their children once in a while, ending a war we never should have started, finishing with al Qaeda, the legacy of Roosevelt, and Truman, and Kennedy, that is the choice in this election (crowd cheers), "the question of whether this country, this moment, will keep doing what it's been doing for the past four years", "it's our turn to choose", "(the other party) will play on our fears, on our doubts, try to distract from the issues which matter", "it won't work because you won't let it work" (crowd interrupts with "YES WE CAN!" chant), "my faith in the decency and honesty and generosity is not based on false hope or blind optimism, but what I've seen in this state, when we were dismissed by all the polls and the pundits...", list of types of people who helped with his campaign (old people, students, etc), "Iowa, change is coming to America", "change is coming to America Iowa", "a better day is still possible if people are willing to work for it, to fight for it", "our journey may be long...we are ready to believe again, Thank You America, Thank You Iowa" (again, not a transcript, just high points.)

23:28 Both CNN and NBC have projected Barak Obama to win Oregon.

01:15 With 65% of the vote in it's safe to say that Barack Obama has won Oregon by a landslide, almost 60% to 40%, 20 percentage points, 75,000 more votes than Clinton.

The interesting question is why did Clinton do so well over Obama in Kentucky, and Obama did just about as well over Clinton in Oregon, 60/40 and 40/60? It leads to speculation about region or race or whatever but it all seems kind of silly when Chris Matthews and Tim Russert and David Gregory repeat their anthropological theories over and over and over and over again, appalachia, appalachia, yup, it's them Hatfields and McCoys who threw this election!

And another thing! The media has to stop saying over and over and over how Hillary is determined to stay in the race until June! JUNE IS NEXT WEEK or thereabouts, 'kay? In April this "Hillary until June" thing sounded like news...Really, until June? Wow. But it's now late May, so let go of it before you're still saying it in July.

* Projected winner

John Edwards got over seven per cent of the vote in West Virginia yesterday, 26,188.

Edwards: Obama VP Pick?

Probably not, but if you want to read more about why some think this might be a good idea see this "Political Insider" article.

18:40 Barak Obama takes the podium, acknowledges that he didn't campaign in Michigan. Very upbeat. Introduces John Edwards, Bruce Springsteen's "The Rising" playing as he mounts podium.

"What am I doing here?" Edwards starts with. "I want to say a word about your friend and my friend Senator Hillary Clinton..." Lists bunch of campaign issues (health care, etc) he's spoken to Clinton about, and that they agree on the issues. "It is very, very hard to get up every morning and do what she has done". "She is a woman of steel". "This battle...will be over soon." "We are a stronger party because Hillary Clinton is a democrat." "Now, what brought all of us here...is the profound..." Crowd interrupts chanting "O-BAM-A O-BAM-A".

"There's a wall...and the American people are on the outside of that wall...big corporations are on the inside". "...Our job come next January is to tear that wall down!..." "...cut poverty in half...Barak Obama stands with me..." Education, health care, continues with "wall" metaphor. "Also a wall that's divided our image in the world...all the world sees now is a bully...a government that argues that waterboarding is not torture...that wall's got to come down...we can change it, we can change it, yes we can!" Crowd chants "YES WE CAN YES WE CAN".

"There is one man who knows how to create the change, the lasting change you have to build from the ground up...and that man is Barak Obama!" Crowd goes wild.

Tells the James Lowe story about the man who lived for 50 years unable to speak due to cleft palate due to lack of health care.

Repeats many of the same issues using "One America where..." instead of "wall". "One America that rebuilds our moral authority in the world." "One America where the walls will fall!" (mixes both metaphors!)

"This is our time to take down these walls...if you want that...then join me in sending Barak Obama to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue..." "...Thank you, god bless you, and good bye."

But what about the people of West Virginia? How do they feel about a nominee and presidential contender who writes them off as unimportant?

Or, worse, the implication that W. Virginia has very few non-whites, so Obama stayed away.

You can really sense the bias for Obama in the media by the silence on this issue. If Hillary Clinton had written off North Carolina as "too black" the media would have been howling day and night about it. In fact Bill Clinton campaigned like hell in North Carolina. But then again no one doubts Bill Clinton's confidence that he can reach out to all Americans except perhaps hard-line right-wingers.

There's something ugly about Obama's skipping West Virginia, we hope this becomes part of the public dialog.

21:16 Hillary wins West Virginia by a landslide! With 12% of the vote counted she leads Obama almost 2 to 1.

21:20 Hillary Clinton West Virginia victory speech is strong, forceful, no indication she's giving up. She points out that no democrat has won the White House without carrying West Virginia since 1916 (Woodrow Wilson.) Very upbeat, "God Bless America!"

21:25 Can't find any results from the Nebraska non-binding republican primary. We'll project John McCain the winner!

22:11 With almost 50% of the vote in Hillary is ahead of Obama in West Virginia by almost 2.5 to 1.

It looks like democrat Travis Childers has won a special election for Mississippi's northern congressional district. That would be three republican districts (including former speaker of the house Dennis Hastert's district) which have gone to democrats.

* Projected winner

Civil War Era Tar Heel Postcard

19:21 In early results Clinton seems to be whoopin' Obama 60/40 in Indiana

19:30 NBC News projects Obama wins North Carolina though nobody seems to have any vote results yet.

19:41 CNN projects Obama wins North Carolina though nobody seems to have any vote results yet.

21:45 Clinton's lead over Obama in Indiana narrows to 4% with 75% of the vote in. Obama appears to have a solid win in North Carolina, 57%/41% (the rest voted "no preference".)

23:12 Tim Russert, Chris Matthews, and Keith Olbermann are babbling endlessly on MSNBC like they're a paid propaganda machine to convince their viewing audience that it's over for Hillary, that it's just a fact. Now Pat Buchanan is saying her speech tonight was a "Hail and farewell" speech (we didn't see that.)

We still maintain that Clinton's eyes are set on the fact that either one candidate attains 2,025 delegates or we go to a brokered convention and a nominee is chosen by other means. It's not enough to walk in with the majority of delegates, it takes 2,025 to wrap it up.

It might be true that Hillary can't attain 2,025 delegates, but it's highly unlikely Obama will either. That means neither wins, and the nomination is opened to the floor of the convention.

01:33 Clinton is projected to win Indiana but by a slimmer margin than expected earlier in the evening. With 99% of the vote reported Clinton leads Obama by 22,412 votes out of 1,254,136 cast or less than 2%.

* Projected winner

Obama received seven more votes than Clinton, 2,264 to 2,257.

CNN's current delegate estimate is Obama 1,493 pledged, 243 super, total 1,736 and Clinton 1,334 pledged, 265 super, total 1,599. That accounting separates the two candidates by 137 delegates.

We wonder if either candidate has ever been to Guam?

Here's a link to the Guampedia.

And Onwards to Tuesday To End All Tuesdays Number 3!

On Tuesday Indiana and North Carolina vote in their democratic party primaries. There are 72 delegates up for grabs in Indiana plus 12 super-delegates. Of the 12 Indiana super-delegates five have already committed to Obama and four to Clinton, so three remain uncommitted.

North Carolina has 115 delegates which will be decided by Tuesday's vote plus 19 super-delegates (total 134.)

A total of 187 delegates are therefore up for grabs on Tuesday, plus 31 super-delegates nine of which are already committed. Neither candidate can wrap it up (required: 2,025) even if they took 100% of the delegates on Tuesday, but decisive wins or losses by either candidates could change the dialogue.

You'll say wait, Obama says Wright married him, baptized his children, even inspired the title of one of his books ("The Audacity of Hope" is taken from a Wright sermon.)

So what? How many couples together some years can't even name the minister who married them or baptized their kids (or administered last rites for a loved one.) Ok, we don't believe the Obamas were quite that random and just paid some minister to do the deeds.

But maybe they weren't in church very much? Is there really any evidence Barack Obama actually attended church much?

The problem is that there is a pattern in the dialogue from Barack Obama. He often relies on negatives, on non-events to make a point.

For example, he says over and over that HE didn't vote for the Iraq war, and Hillary Clinton did.

But Obama wasn't IN the senate in 2003, so he couldn't possibly have voted one way or the other for the funding of the Iraq war.

Similarly, Obama makes various claims about not having any relationships with (taking money from, at least) lobbyists and PACs. But that falls somewhat to the same basic reasoning. He's only been in the Senate since January 2005, such junior senators don't often have many such relationships in their first term in the senate though we suppose he could have developed a few (it would be interesting to compare him to other freshman senators.)

Now he says he's never heard Wright say anything like the things people are reacting negatively to, and if he had he would have quit the congregation.

Studying the above here's an explanation: If he rarely went to church then of course he never would have heard Wright speak like that. Maybe because he hasn't heard Wright talk much at all?!

This wouldn't be shocking news, that Obama only appeared to be an active member of TUCC. Oprah attended the church for a while, so did MSNBC anchor Tamron Hall when she lived in Chicago (she's said this on her show.) Apparently it was the "see and be seen" church for upwardly mobile african-americans in Chicago.

So, where's the evidence of Obama's church attendance?

P.S. AS WE TYPE THIS (~18:49 EDT) Ed Schultz is asking EXACTLY the same question on David Gregory's show on the TV across the room. And now Pat Buchanan lit up and agrees, maybe Obama never went to church much and is now being hoisted on his own petard (i.e., Obama exaggerated his church attendance.) It's the logical explanation. David Gregory completely drops the ball and change the subject back to the well-worn script.

20:50 MSNBC projects Senator Clinton will win Pennsylvania.

21:08 Why are Tim Russert and Chris Matthews continuing to assert the lie that the Democratic Party rules mandate that if Obama has more delegates he must be the nominee? That's simply not true. Either you go into the convention with 2,024 or more delegates, or it goes back to the floor.

21:11 CNN projects Senator Clinton the winner.

21:52 FLASH! Chris Matthews, Tim Russert, Keith Olbermann, and Brian Williams have completely run out of things to say, but they keep talking, like zombies in TV land.

22:12 The new narrative: Obama has failed to win any battleground states, Clinton has won all of them (e.g., NY, NJ, OH, TX, and now PA.) The only large state Obama has won is Illinois and that's his home state. Democrats have to win the states Senator Clinton has won if they are to win the election. Why can't Obama win even one of them, even with his much larger campaign war chest?

22:16 Senator Clinton speaks to supporters in Pennsylvania, "Today you chose". "I thank you Pennsylvania." "I'm in this race to fight for you." "You (in uniform on tours of duty) deserve a commander in chief who will finally bring you home." "Because of you (everyone) the tide is turning." "It is high time we stopped talking about our problems and started solving them!" "We're going to end the war on science and have a renewed commitment to science and research." "Will we be the can-do nation that defies the odds and does the impossible?" (cheers) "Will we take back the White House and take back our country?" (cheers) "Yes We Will! Thank You!"

22:46 Obama speaks to supporters, congratulates Senator Clinton, "She ran a terrific race" hushing booing from audience. "We rallied people of every age and race and background to the cause." "Whether they were inspired for the first time, or the first time in a long time, we registered a record number of voters." Long speech, usual stuff, YES WE CAN! Lobbyists are bad, politicians make promises and then go back to Washington and forget those promises and it's politics as usual. "Now is our turn to follow in the footsteps of all those generations who sacrificed and struggled to affect our improbable union...If we're willing to believe in what's possible again...we will change this country, we will change the world, that's our task, let's get to work, less you!"

* Projected Winner

We mean that they should have gotten themselves at least one commie-hating anti-red chicom yellow peril spouting right wing radio host or senator or something and focused on that angle.

Then they might've had Dick Cheney marching in front of their parade.

Ok, perhaps they don't want Dick Cheney marching in front of their parade. How about Governor Schwarzeneggar?

Anyhow, they might've attracted a very broad segment of anti-oppression Americans from Tibet supporters to unabashed Chicom haters to Free the Kurds (hey what about the poor Kurds?!)

Hatred of oppression by totalitarian bullies is one place where left and right wingers intersect. It's sad to see the opportunity missed and watch this become another "oh those annoying liberals" issue.

Granted she's been serving as Secretary of State since 2005 and was Bush's National Security Advisor before that, 2001-2005. She also served in Bush's father's administration as Soviet and East European Affairs Advisor. In between the two Bush administrations she was a professor of political science at Stanford University and also served as Provost there, and was an assistant and associate professor at Stanford previously.

She's obviously an enormously intelligent and highly educated person and a very accomplished person professionally. Even her musical (she's a pianist) credentials are impressive, see her wikipedia page.

We just have one problem.

As National Security Advisor and in particular for the past three years as Secretary of State she sucked!

What has she accomplished? Under her watch as National Security Advisor we had the 9/11 attacks. Ok, perhaps it's unfair to lay those at her feet but there were a lot of lapses in national security surrounding that attack which have yet to be answered for. For example, former CIA director George Tenet claimed in testimony that he tried to warn Rice about impending Al Qaeda activity two months before the 9/11 attacks. Rice said she had no recollection of any such meeting. That leaves something to be desired no matter what the truth.

More specifically, as Secretary of State, what has she accomplished? Secretary of State is head of the State Department which acts primarily as our diplomatic corps, ambassadors to other countries, that sort of thing.

In the past several years the world has largely come to dislike and distrust (and, in more than a few cases, stronger words) the United States.

Ok, that's vague and hard to measure. Here's something easier to measure. Bush has repeatedly, from just before the invasion of Iraq, tried to get military involvement from other nations. The "coalition of the willing", as the Bush administration has referred to our "multi-national coalition in Iraq" has been a bad joke consisting of nations like Poland and Peru (and England of course.) Nothing against Poland or Peru but it's not exactly the same as getting one of the G5 countries like France or Italy or, heaven forfend, some Arab countries which may've given us a few troops who could actually speak arabic!

Granted some of that failure has to be laid at the feet of Colin Powell who would probably blame others in the administration if he felt like responding at all. But Secty Rice has been in the position for a few years now and hasn't done anything of note in this regard. And it's not for lack of trying.

Secretary Rice was an outspoken supporter of the Iraq invasion and subsequent war. Just before the invasion she wrote an editorial in the New York Times asserting that Iraq was lying about not having weapons of mass destruction. She is much more than just a casual by-stander in the Iraq war debacle. In her famous January 10th, 2003 statement on Wolf Blitzer's CNN show, just a few weeks before the US invasion of Iraq, Rice said:

The problem here is that there will always be some uncertainty about how quickly he [ed. Saddam Hussein] can acquire nuclear weapons. But we don't want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud.

Now, there are two possibilities. Either she honestly believed Iraq was an imminent threat, in which case she was very seriously wrong (we went to war over such beliefs!), or she was shilling for the Bush administration.

Neither choice is very palatable in a person seeking to be one heartbeat away from president.

Another stated goal of the Bush administration is to accomplish something in the Israeli/Palestinian (and surrounding areas) conflict. Every few months we're told Secty Rice has flown to that region to try to open some doors, but nothing of note has happened.

Need we say anything about the recent experiences between the US and Iran? Last week, when our side lost the battle in Basra, an Iranian general was involved in the other side. We can't even keep the Iranians from helping to kill our troops.

And what about immigration? You might think if the US was so concerned with millions of immigrants coming across the US/Mexican border we might see some work with the Mexican government to address this problem. Instead, we're building a fence. We can understand a fence between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, there's open hostility between those two entities, but you might expect the US and Mexico to be a little more cooperative.

Relations with China would also be under Secretary Rice's purview, so if you're not ecstatic about our relations with China...

Granted John McCain hasn't commented on Secretary Rice's ambitions but we just can't see why he would want the foremost symbol of the failures of the Bush administration as a running mate.

And, yes, she really did have a Chevron oil super-tanker named for her. She headed Chevron's committee on public policy immediately before becoming National Security Advisor in 2001. Perhaps her real goal is to get an aircraft carrier named after herself?

How about this Jefferson quote:

Advertisements contain the only truths to be relied on in a newspaper.

Jefferson didn't have the opportunity to watch Hardball but perhaps we can infer its application. Or this quote:

Speeches that are measured by the hour will die with the hour.

Here is the entire quote Matthews is referring to, it is from a letter sent by Jefferson to Baron von Humboldt in 1817:

The first principle of republicanism is that the lex majoris partis is the fundamental law of every society of individuals of equal rights; to consider the will of the society enounced by the majority of a single vote, as sacred as if unanimous, is the first of all lessons in importance, yet the last which is thoroughly learnt. This law once disregarded, there is no other but that of force, which ends necessarily in military despotism.

Which is essentially what Matthews is saying. However, one embedded use of this quote is in "The Standard Code of Parliamentary Procedure", Alice F. Sturgis, and goes on to say:

One exception to the principle of requiring only a majority vote is when the vote restricts the right of full and free discussion, as with a motion to limit debate or to close debate. These motions require a two-thirds vote.

An interesting comment though not catastrophic to Matthews' thesis.

However, what is catastrophic is Matthews' repeated unspoken assumption that the nomination for the democratic presidential candidate is decided by a simple majority vote.

That is simply untrue, and Matthews knows this even if he does usually manage to have a shill nearby to agree with the "spirit" of what he's saying, generally some Obama fanatic (e.g., Michelle Bernard.)

The democratic party nomination process requires a candidate obtain a majority of the delegates to win the nomination, not a simple majority. This is a very common election procedure and is even defined carefully in the above Sturgis reference.

A majority of the delegates in this democratic nomination election is 2,024.

That is, it is not enough for one candidate to have simply more delegates than the other candidate(s). They must have at least 2,024 delegates.

And if no candidate obtains 2,024 delegates then the convention is brokered.

Here is the quote from that wikipedia page:

Once the first ballot has been held, and no candidate has a majority of delegate votes, the convention is then considered brokered, and the nomination is decided through political horse-trading and further ballots

Put simply, if neither candidate has the required 2,024 delegates then, except for its memory, the entire vote is procedurally discarded and a new process takes effect to pick a nominee.

Those are the rules no matter how many times Matthews quotes Thomas Jefferson's completely irrelevant (to this contest) comment.

Now, what is the likelihood of a brokered convention as described?

This brings up another bugaboo of Matthews. He claims, repeatedly, and again usually with an Obama shill nearby to nod agreement, that it is some sort of violation or rewrite of the rules to seat Michigan and Florida's delegates.

Unfortunately for Matthews' willful ignorance there are written procedures within the democratic party to re-seat those delegates at the convention or even before. This is why Howard Dean (chairman, DNC) and others have been considering allowing Michigan and Florida to re-vote. It's one of the ways for the delegates to get re-seated according to the rules.

There are also procedures for seating the Michigan and Florida delegates at the convention. The Chair of the Credentials committee can present this for a vote on the floor, debate proceeds, and a vote taken. If the majority votes for Michigan and/or Florida to be re-seated then they are re-seated.

Are you listening Matthew fans? There is a procedure already in place to re-seat the Michigan and Florida delegates! It's NOT cheating.

Read all about the grisly details in this PDF file: Call For the 2008 Democratic National Convention , dated February 7, 2006. Pay particular attention to sections VII and VIII which outline the procedure for re-seating delegates.

Of the very, very few who have bothered to look into this rather than just shooting off with their mouths some have said that this is moot anyhow because the procedure requires a majority of the sitting delegates to vote to reinstate Michigan and Florida and if Hillary Clinton doesn't have a majority going in then it's unlikely a majority made up of Obama delegates will vote to seat Michigan and Florida.

That's pure horsepucky, or wild speculation at best. Florida, in particular, was unseated because of the action of their Republican legislature and Republican governor who moved the state's primary back in violation of the DNC rules. That might garner some sympathy to let them vote even among seated delegates who aren't guaranteed that the make-up of the unseated delegates is entirely to their liking. The issue will be one of fair play, something Matthews often accuses Clinton of being less than interested in.

That is, the four thousand some-odd delegates aren't likely to act ruthlessly and exclude Michigan and Florida from voting should the convention become brokered. Candidates might act in a selfish manner, but thousands (or hundreds) of delegates aren't likely to be swayed by such Machiavellian impulses.

Granted that's speculation on our part, and just like those claiming to know that the delegates won't vote to seat Florida and Michigan, we don't really know, and they don't really know, so let's move on.

The point is that there is an established procedure to re-seat the Florida and Michigan delegates. There is nothing underhanded about this despite Matthews' protestations and dissembling.

Why is this important? Because, and this is where Matthews get even his own point of view completely wrong, if you don't seat the Florida and Michigan delegates then a brokered convention is more likely. Florida has 211 delegates at stake, Michigan 157 for a total of 368 delegates or nearly 10% of the total delegates.

But let's do some math. Assume CNN is correct and the delegate and super-delegate count right now is Obama 1,626, Clinton 1,486.

So what's left if we go to the bitter end, without Michigan and Florida?

Plus there are 2 (two) unassigned super-delegates yet to be assigned, so let's call it 692 remaining delegates to be voted for. Note that these include super-delegates which may not be beholden to their state's popular vote.

For starters let's assume the two candidates split these evenly, 346 each. That would give 1,972 delegates and Clinton 1,832.

If that's the result then neither candidate has won the nomination. Period. Not "Obama is a little ahead so let's give it to him."

SORRY, THOSE AREN'T THE RULES!

You need 2,024 delegates or else the convention is brokered and other procedures come into play. For example, someone like Al Gore or Joe Biden or John Edwards could get nominated from the floor and win the nomination...POOF!

Or a "dark horse candidate" could arise, someone we're not even thinking about. In fact, that's exactly where the term "dark horse candidate" comes from in this context."

From the Wikipedia entry for "dark horse":

"A dark horse candidate is one who is nominated unexpectedly, without previously having been discussed or considered as a likely choice...The expression was soon applied to James K. Polk, a relatively unknown Tennessee Democrat who won the Democratic Party's 1844 presidential nomination over a host of better-known candidates. Polk won the nomination on the eighth ballot, and went on to win the 1844 presidential election."

The article proceeds to name several more dark horse candidates in US presidential races. It's not even all that rare. Lincoln was a dark horse, as were Hayes, Pierce, Garfield, Harding, and two unsuccessful candidates John W. Davis and Wendell Wilkie. So six of our presidents out of 43 were dark horses or about 14% and the vast majority went on to become president.

Let's try one more scenario. In order to win a candidate needs 2,024 delegates. The current leader, Obama, has 1,626 so needs 2,024 - 1,626 which is 398 more delegates. There are 692 remaining to be voted on, so Obama needs 57.5% of the remaining delegates. Hillary has 1,486 so needs 2,024 - 1,486 or 538 more delegates, about 77.7%.

Now here's where people get tricky. They ignore the Obama number above and say look! Hillary needs over 75% (or "nearly 80%" if they really want to be shrill) of the remaining delegates to win! How likely is that?!

Well, by the same token Obama needs nearly 60% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination, how likely is that?!

Granted it's much more likely that Obama will get 60% of the remaining delegates than Hillary will get nearly 80% of them.

But the most likely outcome, based on the race thus far, is that they come much closer to splitting the remaining delegates so neither gets the required 2,024 and we get a brokered convention.

But the point is that the thus far uncounted delegates from Michigan and Florida are very important to settling this nomination process if it doesn't get settled before the convention. They're important to Obama as well as Clinton even if some pundits are guessing they give Clinton an edge. But without them it's likely there simply aren't enough delegate votes to give either candidate the required 2,024.

Let's finish our arithmetic exercise. Add the 368 Michigan and Florida delegates to the 692 thus far undecided and we get 1,060 more delegates at stake. Split them evenly, 530 each for Obama and Clinton. That would give Obama 2,156 delegates and Clinton 2,016 AND OBAMA WOULD WIN FAIR AND SQUARE!.

Ok, that makes the big assumption that the remaining 1,060 delegates, including Florida and Michigan, goes 50/50, but it does leave a margin of 132 votes for Obama. That is, even if he wins 132 less than 50% of the remaining delegates, including Florida and Michigan, he still wins. Or, put another way, Obama would only need about 37.5% (398) of those delegates. Those aren't bad odds.

As to Chris Matthews, we lost interest in exposing his heavily biased spin about half-way through this article. But he should be ashamed of himself. Or, better, he should realize he's not getting away with it. Not so long as we are here for you, dear readers.

Barack Obama's campaign has scheduled a response which will be aired on the three major networks at 9PM eastern time.

McCain is said to be flying to the Washington, DC to meet with President Bush and will also make a formal announcement introducing the McCain/Clinton ticket shortly after Clinton's press conference.

"This is a startling development" said former candidate John Edwards, "nobody saw this coming or going!" Senator Joe Lieberman told press sources that he knew negotiations were under way between McCain and Clinton but was surprised at how quickly both candidates came to a decision. Lieberman also announced he would be formally announcing a switch to the republican party in the next few days.

Other Reactions

Senator Ted Kennedy told a Boston Globe reporter that he was just glad the democratic presidential nomination race was over. Kennedy expressed good wishes for the McCain/Clinton ticket but predicted that Barack Obama would ultimately win the White House in the upcoming election.

Rush Limbaugh prepared a short statement replacing the usual evening and morning ad spots for his show expressing dismay and reiterating his disgust with McCain. "As far as I am concerned the republican party no longer exists" said Limbaugh and vowed to work for a new conservative party to replace the republican party.

Ralph Nader, who announced his intention to run as a third-party candidate in February, told reporters he was confused by the move but reiterated his belief that his run would not take votes from either Barack Obama or the McCain/Clinton ticket. Some speculated this was because Nader expected no votes in November.

Former President Bill Clinton headed home to Chappaqua, New York and refused comment as he boarded a taxi to the airport. Some who saw the president leave his hotel thought he looked agitated and may not be happy with his wife's decision. Chelsea Clinton was also unavailable for comment. A spokesperson for Chelsea Clinton issued a cryptic message saying only that Chelsea was returning to Manhattan to ponder her options.

Contacts within the Obama campaign speculated that a vice-presidential candidate would be chosen "very shortly, possibly before the end of the week" and that Senator Obama was looking forward to a vigorous and very public presidential campaign debate.

In other news, scientists have announced the successful, secretive, cloning of a razorback hog and bald eagle hybrid a few months ago. The hybrid animal is said to be capable of rudimentary flight.

Human nature is one factor. Human beings generally like closure. They may enjoy a good contest (consider sports), but at some point they enjoy the catharsis of an outcome. Have you ever sat through a tied baseball game which goes to 12, 14, or more innings? It doesn't happen often, but for a while it's interesting and then it can get tedious and boring. On April 18, 1981 the Pawtucket Red Sox and the Rochester Red Wings (triple-a league) finally suspended a game in the 32nd inning at 4AM. There were 19 fans left in the seats.

The Longest professional baseball game

Another important motivation, particularly from Obama supporters, is that the Pennsylvania primary is looming on April 22nd. It's likely Hillary will do very well in Pennsylvania which can change the momentum in favor of Hillary or at least give her a strong public reason to push on. So simple strategy says to raise the hue and cry for her to quit before Pennsylvania or risk a newly energized Clinton campaign.

Of course, there is the simple appeal to reason that Obama is ahead in the race, the race is costing a lot of money, the democratic party is losing time getting their national campaign against McCain started, so let's just move on.

That argument is often fortified by the claim that if you do the math on the delegates and likely outcomes in the remaining primaries Hillary just can't win. The numbers would require her to win over 70% (or thereabouts) of the delegates in each remaining primary contest and that's extremely unlikely to happen. So, coupled with the previous argument (let's move on to the national campaign) Hillary should see the writing on the wall and drop out.

Unfortunate for that argument is that if you do the math Obama is very unlikely to win also if "winning" means attaining the 2,024 delegates required to claim the democratic party nomination.

Many have pushed forward a narrative claiming this isn't important, that if we go to the end and Obama is ahead then the party must give the nomination to Obama, anything else would be "violating the will of the people" or similar. So let's just project this outcome and call it done now.

The Clinton camp says not so fast. The rules don't say that whoever has the most delegates wins. That's pure invention. The rules say that you must get 2,024 delegates or else other nomination processes go into play. It's like a boxing match where it ends if one boxer gets knocked unconscious. But boxing matches are usually limited to 15 rounds. If neither boxer is knocked out after 15 rounds then they use another method to pick the winner which is a points system to decide who fought the better fight.

So it's really get 2,024 delegates or we move onto other procedures for picking a nominee. Not simple majority vote.

Chris Matthews on MSNBC keeps pushing this maudlin and grandiose idea about how Thomas Jefferson said that critical to democracy is the idea that if you win or lose by even just one vote then you accept the outcome.

It's a very nice platitude, sort of, we're not sure, actually, we have our doubts, it would take another long article to argue the point.

But those aren't the rules for this democratic primary process. The rules are either one candidate attains 2,024 delegates or we proceed to other procedures to pick a candidate. And Chris Matthews knows this, so why the hypocrisy, Chris?

Continuing that thought we hear a lot of baying from the talking heads and other media calling for Hillary to throw in the towel. We believe there are a few less than completely relevant reasons for this also and it significantly adds to the apparent volume.

Let's start easy. Many of the reasons outlined above operate on the people in charge of producing the media, they're just people and have their opinions and are also subject to human urges such as a desire for closure. Fair enough.

Also, among the democrats in the media, one senses that quite a few of them personally favor Barack Obama. There's nothing wrong with that. Again, they're human beings and not machines and if they have a strong preference it will tend to come through in their round tables and talking heads and opinion segments.

But we sense other motivations.

Traditional media, particularly television news and political commentary, is struggling for their economic lives against the internet and other new media, even video games. There are just so many hours in a day.

The key demographic for television advertisers is young people, typically outlined as 16-24 though often extended to 30 years old. Obviously the youngest of these can't even vote but that doesn't mean they can't watch these news shows. Remember, the point here is the commercials, not the show's content.

Of these viewers who have any interest in the Obama v. Clinton contest (that is, not republicans or apathetics) polling tells us that Obama is very, very popular among them.

This affects the old boomer farts who dominate television media in a few different ways.

First, the base their advertisers want (and hence, where their bread is buttered) are these young Obama supporters. A good way to keep them watching is to give voice to their point of view (e.g., Hillary should quit already!)

Second, for these aging media stars the fountain of youth is to appear young and hip and "with it". That means Obama, not Clinton. Clinton looks a lot like them and for media personalities in a youth culture that's like staring down into the grave.

But not us, dear readers, we don't stare down into graves simply because we fear what might look back!

1. When the financial markets, in particular Bear Stearns, gets into trouble boy the federal government is fast to show up with $29B here and $200B there to shore them up, funding JP Morgan to buy out Bear Stearns, injecting liquidity into the banking system, proposing vast bailouts of bad mortgage portfolios. But when Katrina destroyed much of New Orleans the fed seemed to put its hands in its pockets, shrug, and say "what do you expect us to do???"

2. On a related note, republican administrations and high-finance types shudder at any suggestions of "socializing" profits, such as corporate taxes to balance the federal deficit, financing universal health care, rebuilding crumbling infrastructure or emergency disaster relief.

But socializing losses such as spreading the damage of billions in bad investments and sinking high-risk mortgage portfolios, etc., out to the taxpayers, now that's just about a sacred rite!

This development must surely scotch the rumors that Gov Richardson is on Hillary's VP short list! Maybe he just moved to Obama's VP short list? He'd certainly make a good VP candidate, and VP.

John McCain and John Hagee

John Hagee is a bit of a religious nut case with a large ministry following which to us is more disturbing than anything John Hagee might believe.

Hagee is rather anti-Catholic and anti-Islam. Mostly his views can be reduced to "my religion (Protestantism) is the correct one and therefore all the others are crap." Except he does give a pass to Jews (whew! I'm sure they are all relieved every last one of them) because of passages in Romans which basically say the Jews are in Christ's waiting room or something like that.

Hagee endorsed McCain. When questioned about this McCain "condemned" Hagee's anti-whatever beliefs but wouldn't repudiate his endorsement saying that he doesn't have to agree with every single thing an endorser believes. We suppose Hillary could say that about Eliot Spitzer though we'd be willing to wager serious cash that she won't.

But the interesting part is how many Obama supporters have now lept on this and claimed it is a direct parallel of the Jeremiah Wright matter. If John McCain can just shrug off Hagee's beliefs, and not even repudiate his endorsement, why did Obama get so much grief about Jeremiah Wright? Is this an example of racism, or unfair play anyhow?

No it is not.

Jeremiah Wright was the pastor of Obama's own church. He has been Obama's pastor for almost twenty years. Jeremiah Wright performed Obama's wedding ceremony. A sermon of Jeremiah Wright's was the inspiration for the title of Obama's book "The Audacity of Hope". And so on.

From what we can tell McCain doesn't even really know Hagee, though clearly he knows a lot about him. McCain's campaign sought Hagee's endorsement. His ministry can be seen and heard in nearly 100 million homes on 160 TV stations and 50 radio stations. We can see why he came up though we can also see why many wish he hadn't.

But any parallel with Obama's Jeremiah Wright problem is ridiculous.

And if you don't think it's really silly season Chris Matthews just accused Hagee of being anti-semitic even though despite his anti-Catholic and anti-Islamic views Hagee seems to be ok with Jews and in particular Israel, his ministry has sent millions of dollars to Israel. Some of Hagee's rationalization of his anti-Catholicism is an accusation that the Catholics fostered anti-semitism for hundreds of years which is no doubt true enough though we're not sure his beloved Protestantism gets a clean bill of health on this point either.

About the only thing we can find from Hagee which has been suggested as anti-semitic is that the Jews were partially responsible for their persecution over the years because they were "disobedient" of god.

Then again Hagee says New Orleans brought Katrina on themselves because they were disobedient of god. No explanation why the French Quarter got a pass. Hagee just seems to be one of those nuts who tells people who get cancer or lose a child in a car wreck that it's their own fault for not having more faith in god.

Hagee's anti-Catholicism is pretty clear, however.

Any accusation of Hagee being anti-semitic does seem rather scattershot. Chris Matthews is being foolish and inflammatory but it's all become yellow journalism. All except us, dear reader!

Passport-Gate

Is this a tempest in a teapot or what? What's in your passport file that's so interesting? The worst we've heard is that there is information in there which someone could use to "steal your identity" (a scary term for "get credit cards and other loans in your name and cause you a big headache".)

Steal your identity? Does that mean your social security number is in your passport file? It probably is, and that's probably all they mean. Such is the non-stop volume amplification of what passes for journalism these days.

We agree that your passport file should be private, but we have no doubt that doesn't include privacy from the FBI, Dept of Homeland Security, the IRS, the US State Dept, probably anyone doing a security clearance check on you and probably various services which do background checks on potential employees, etc etc etc. Hey look, he's been to France! That makes him a potentially disgruntled employee over the slop we serve in our cafeteria! Next Candidate!!!

But we agree that the contents of your passport file should be private. Except when it's not. Which is probably "usually" in this current climate of fighting everyone because surely if we fight everyone then sooner or later we'll get a terrorist.

And what does our passport file contain anyhow? All we got from this entire kerfuffle was a newly piqued curiosity about what the hub-bub was about, bub.

And have a Good Friday.

What is rarely mentioned is that the primary was moved by vote of the Florida legislature when both houses passed House Bill 537, and the bill was subsequently signed by the governor.

The Florida legislature at the time (and today) is dominated by republican legislators, and the governor Charlie Crist both then and now is a republican.

So the republicans managed to screw the democrats out of getting their primary votes counted.

Unless we're missing something this seems a little crazy.

If we are missing something by all means set us straight by emailing to editor@The-Election.com!

We admit that some of the rules and customs operating in these primaries can confuse us.